Forecasting Specialist - Decision Science

Forecasting Specialist - Decision Science

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This range is provided by Mercor. Your actual pay will be based on your skills and experience — talk with your recruiter to learn more.

Base pay range

$200.00/hr - $400.00/hr

About The Job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.

Position Details

• Position: Internal Human Super-Forecaster
• Type: Contract
• Compensation: $200–$400/hour
• Commitment: 20–30 hours/week

Role Responsibilities

• Work closely with AI research teams to generate, train, and validate human-anchored forecasts on key strategic questions and emerging risks.
• Apply rigorous probabilistic reasoning and quantitative techniques to enhance both human and machine forecasting accuracy.
• Evaluate AI models’ forecasts for coherence and alignment with structured human judgment. Provide expert feedback on model errors and biases.
• Design and review forecasting experiments and challenge frameworks to turn strategic uncertainty into actionable insight.
• Participate in synchronous collaboration sessions to review forecast portfolios and refine judgments.

Qualifications

Must-Have

• Advanced degree or extensive professional experience in Forecasting, Decision Science, Economics, Political Science, Risk Analysis or a related field.
• Proven track record of making high-quality probabilistic forecasts or decision-intelligence insights.
• Strong competency in probability, calibration, scenario design, and structured judgment techniques.
• Proficiency with forecasting tools, data visualization, or statistical software (e.g., Python, R, Excel).
• Excellent written and verbal communication and strong analytical reasoning.

Resources & Support

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