Geopolitics Forecaster

1. Role Overview

Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a cutting-edge research initiative involving top superforecasters from around the world. We're seeking geopolitical experts to contribute high-quality predictions and analytical reasoning on major international developments. This contract-based opportunity allows professionals to apply their domain expertise in a unique setting focused on enhancing AI reasoning models.

2. Key Responsibilities

• Produce structured forecasts on geopolitical events, risks, and regional dynamics

• Document your reasoning clearly, citing relevant sources and frameworks

• Assess political, military, and diplomatic developments using open-source intelligence

• Collaborate with other expert forecasters to compare and refine outputs

• Support the design and evaluation of forecasting tasks

3. Ideal Qualifications

• Background in political science, international relations, security studies, or related fields

• Demonstrated forecasting experience or tournament participation (e.g., GJ Open, Metaculus)

• Ability to synthesize complex geopolitical information into structured insights

• Excellent written communication and research skills

• Familiarity with current global events and international affairs

4. More About the Opportunity

• Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule

• Expected commitment: ~10–20 hours/week

5. Compensation & Contract Terms

• $105–125/hour for U.S.-based applicants

• You'll be classified as an independent contractor

6. Application Process

• Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started

• You'll complete a brief form

• We'll follow up within a few days with next steps

7. About Mercor

• Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations

• Our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey

• Thousands of professionals across domains like law, creatives, engineering, and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI