Statistical Forecast Analyst

Join to apply for the Statistical Forecast Analyst role at Mercor

1 day ago Be among the first 25 applicants

This range is provided by Mercor. Your actual pay will be based on your skills and experience — talk with your recruiter to learn more.

Base pay range

$105.00/hr - $140.00/hr

Direct message the job poster from Mercor

About The Job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark , General Catalyst , Peter Thiel , Adam D'Angelo , Larry Summers , and Jack Dorsey .

Position: Independent Forecaster

Type: Contract

Compensation: $105–$140/hour

Location: Remote

Commitment: 10–20 hours/week

Role Responsibilities

• Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics.
• Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs to enhance prediction quality.
• Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions and improve AI systems.
• Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers to refine forecasting methods.
• Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design to elevate output standards.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while contributing to AI model improvement.

Qualifications

• Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle).
• High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record.
• Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks.
• Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing.
• Self-driven and intellectually curious.

Compensation & Legal

• Independent contractor

Application Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete)

• Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started.
• Complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast.
• We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps.

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check:
• For any help or support, reach out to:

PS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.

Referrals increase your chances of interviewing at Mercor by 2x